Course Overview 

This highly interactive course is designed to equip leaders with practical scenario planning skills to navigate uncertainty in supply chains. The course begins with a clear discussion of managerial and organizational biases, challenges of decision-making under uncertainty, and an introduction to scenario planning and its strategic value. Participants learn a systematic approach for scenario creation and engage in hands-on development of customized, decision-relevant scenarios. The course advances to applying scenarios for visioning and stress-testing strategies, assumptions, and risks. It concludes by exploring how organizations monitor the business environment using indicators and strategy dashboards. The course concludes by understanding scenario planning as a critical leadership tool to build organizational vigilance, adaptability, and resilience embedded into everyday leadership and decision-making practices. The course uses generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) as an important tool for developing scenarios.

Who should take this course?

This course is designed for leaders and professionals who must make high-impact decisions in uncertain, rapidly changing environments, including:

• Senior executives and business unit leaders responsible for strategy, growth, and long-term performance

• Strategy, corporate development, and planning professionals involved in market analysis, investment decisions, and portfolio management

• Innovation, transformation, and digital leaders navigating disruptive and emerging business models

• Risk management and enterprise resilience leaders seeking proactive approaches to uncertainty beyond traditional risk tools

• Entrepreneurs and founders preparing their organizations for multiple possible futures

• High-potential managers and future leaders developing strategic thinking

Requirements/Prerequisite 

The course has no formal prerequisites. However, to gain maximum value, participants should:

• Have basic familiarity with business strategy and organizational decision-making

• Be involved in, or exposed to, strategic planning, growth initiatives, innovation, or risk management

• Be willing to actively participate in hands-on workshops and group discussions

Faculty

Dr. Shardul Phadnis is a Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management at the Asia School of Business. His research explores the intersection of supply chains and strategic management: (a) how organizations create value by orchestrating supply chain operations and (b) how strategy processes, such as scenario planning, influence the adaptability of supply chain infrastructures and processes. He has advised companies, senior business leaders, and public-sector planners on strategic scenario planning projects in Asia, Europe, and North and South America.

Prof. Shardul’s book “Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022) describes first-hand accounts of scenario planning applications in three in-depth cases of strategic/long-range planning in business and governmental planning organisations. His research has been published in elite journals, such as Strategic Management Journal, Academy of Management Perspectives, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Production and Operations Management, MIT Sloan Management Review, California Management Review, Journal of Business Logistics, and several others.

Prof. Shardul is an Associate Editor of the journal Futures & Foresight Science, and ex-President of the Board of Directors of The Lost Food Project (Malaysia’s largest sustainable food bank). He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.